THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ODA, IMPORT–EXPORT TURNOVER, AND VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD 1995 – 2022 (SDG)

Objectives: This article studies the relationship between official development assistance (ODA), import-export turnover, and Vietnam’s economic growth during the period 1995– 2022. Method: Using qualitative combined with quantitative research methods, based on the database collected by year from 1995 to 2022 from the website of the General Statistics Office, International Monetary Fund, Ministry of Finance, and World Bank...The database was analized by the Eview 12 Software. Results and Discussion: Vietnam’s economic growth depends on the operation of ODA budget solutions and total export turnover over time. ODA capital has a positive impact but is not as clear as total import-export turnover. In the first stage, when ODA capital rises, GDPR increases too, but in the later stages, continuing to increase ODA capital will not benefit the Vietnamese economy, while total export turnover has a positive effect on Vietnam’s economic growth for a long time. Research Implications: ODA capital only has a positive impact in the early stages when Vietnam enters the innovation phase, but in the later stages, international trade plays a more important role in Vietnam’s economic growth. Under the condition that other factors remain uncha nged when total export turnover increases by 1%, GDPR increases by 0.416906%. Value: From the results of the analysis, the research team proposes solutions to selectively attract ODA, effectively use capital to ensure that infrastructure continues to be developed more modernly, and strengthen international trade activities to motivate sustainable economic growth.


INTRODUCTION
The period 1995-2022 marks a period of significant development of the Vietnamese economy with important changes.Vietnam's economy transformed from a subsidized economy to a socialist-oriented market economy.On the other hand, the period 1995-2022 marks the transition and movement of the economy in the context of globalization and deep integration into the regional and international economy.Vietnam has participated in many bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and has achieved many achievements in the fields of trade and investment.The economy has experienced impressive growth, infrastructure, and people's living standards have improved thanks to foreign investment and aid from developed countries in the early stages of economic reform.One of the important factors promoting economic growth in the early stages is official development assistance (ODA) from developed countries such as Japan, and Korea...ODA capital is often used to finance important projects, mainly focusing on the fields of infrastructure, education, health, and rural development.The long-term impact of ODA through infrastructure will attract foreign investors, and develop international trade activities, thereby promoting economic growth.In recent years, ODA capital sources in Vietnam have mainly come from preferential ODA loans.Nonrefundable ODA capital (mainly used for scientific research activities, training, community development support...) accounts for a lower proportion.ODA plays a certain role in Vietnam's economic growth (Vladik Kreinovich et al., 2018); however, the number of articles related to analyzing the impact of ODA capital on the economy is not much, most research articles only stop at analyzing the impact of ODA capital on the economy, trends, positive points, and limitations in using ODA capital, leading to general solutions to improve efficiency without specific, clear plans for each sector of the economy.In order to understand the impact of ODA capital and international trade activities on Vietnam's economic growth, the research team conducted research with the topic: "The of the analysis answer the question: when ODA capital and total import-export turnover change, how does economic growth change?Thereby proposing solutions to improve the efficiency of ODA capital usage and promote the export of goods to promote economic growth in Vietnam.

The concept of economic growth
Real GDP (GDPR) reflects the increase in the output of goods and services produced in the economy because it ignores the increase in price factors (the price level is chosen to be fixed over the years).Therefore, when calculating the economic growth rate, economists use the GDPR indicator, the economic growth rate is the percentage change in GDPR of this period/year compared to the previous period/year.
where: According to Nejadan (2008), the primary hypothesis posits that foreign aid contributes to the economic growth of recipient nations.Regardless of whether these countries have autonomy over how the aid is allocated, it is undeniable that foreign aid alleviates budgetary constraints in the short term.
The influx of additional financial resources can influence the recipient's trade balance, such as by facilitating increased imports of consumer goods.
Furthermore, traditional macroeconomic theories suggest that in the long term, foreign aid acts as a substitute for domestic savings in the recipient country.
This substitution allows for increased investment, which in turn enhances the nation's productive capacity and fosters economic growth  sectors such as construction, education, and healthcare, resulting in higher profits, demand, wages, and prices.This effect, known as the "resourcemovement effect," attracts productive resources away from tradable sectors.
As the exchange rate appreciates, the overall price level in the economy rises.
This appreciation and the resource-movement effect reduce the profitability and international competitiveness of tradable sectors like agriculture and industry, decreasing exports and increasing imports.This analysis assumes a small open economy with a fixed supply of tradable goods.Some empirical studies do not support that ODA has a positive impact on economic growth, they proved that ODA harms the economy.Elayah (2016) believes that ODA does not have a positive impact in African countries such as Yemen, Egypt, and Jordan, explaining that the reason ODA is not effective in these countries is due to weak legal policies and institutional environments.Bhattarai (2016) determined that donor aid might not necessarily enhance growth rates in recipient countries.Econometric analysis showed that investment, rather than aid, is the primary growth driver in developing countries, and that exports associated with aid could be harmful to growth.
Meanwhile, research by Rahnama, Fawaz, and Gittings (2017) indicated that foreign aid boosts growth in higher-income developing countries but has adverse effects on lower-income developing countries.This suggests that the benefits of foreign aid are more pronounced at advanced stages of development.

RESEARCH DATA
To examine the relationship between ODA, economic growth, and In the model, the variables ODA and GDP are logged and denoted as LODA and LGDPR, respectively.The total import-export turnover (XNK), representing the results of trade activities, is calculated as the sum of exports (X) and imports (IM) and is logged as LXNK.
Using Eviews 8 software, the research team performed descriptive statistics on these variables, as detailed in Table 1.

Checking the suitability of the model
The quantitative economics model is used to explain the impact of ODA, total import and export turnover on the economic growth of Vietnam during the period 1995-2022, the data collected for each year, is turned into a logarithm, and the result is shown in Table 2. Table 4.

Heteroskedasticity Test (White)
Source: Result of the inspection of the model The result in Table 4 showed that Prob.coefficient F(8.

Normally distributed residuals
Source: Result of the inspection of the model

The regression model and the analysis of the results
The results of the analysis of regression data using the Eviews8 in Table  + The economic growth of Vietnam is also affected by the total trade turnover of the year before.Coefficient C(3)=0.416906> 0, so it can be determined in the condition that other factors do not change when the total trade turnover of the year before increases by 1%, real total gross domestic product at present increases by 0.416906%.As such, the total import and export turnover of the year before has a positive effect on the economic growth of Vietnam at present, justifiable for previously conducted hypotheses and studies, and also reflects the situation of Vietnamese trade expansion during the process of international economic integration and globalization.
The coefficient R-squared=0.996518showed that the regression model successfully explained 99.6518% of the changes in GDPR.

SOME RECOMMENDATIONS AND SOLUTIONS
The period 1995-2022 showed the importance of ODA and international trade activities to the economy of Vietnam through previous achievements.
Through the quantitative analysis conducted by the team of researchers, it can be determined that international trade activities have a positive relationship with the economic growth of Vietnam throughout the entire period researched.
Meanwhile, the impact of ODA on economic growth is split into 2 periods, the first period showed a positive relationship while the second showed a negative one.In recent years, Vietnam has witnessed a decline in ODA, which showed that ODA has an important role in helping a country build infrastructure to develop transportation infrastructure, education system, healthcare ....In later stages when infrastructure has been stable, the role of ODA decreases gradually and has negative impacts on economic growth.This means that a country should not depend too much on international aid but should focus on developing through international trade activities and attracting direct foreign investment.However, it cannot be denied that ODA indirectly boosts trade activities through developing infrastructure, creating a favorable condition for the transportation of logistics, so in the long run, the government should still selectively attract ODA from developed countries to further develop and improve infrastructure.Therefore, to promote long-run economic growth, our Third, the government needs to selectively attract ODAs not only by the nature of the loan but also by the lending country.It needs to be considered carefully before deciding to borrow with conditions from lenders that are not compatible with the goals of developing the society and economy of Vietnam.
Refrain from indiscriminately attracting ODA, which would lead to bureaucratic problems, corruption, and vices, leading to non-performing loans, waste, and misallocation of resources.
Fourth, aside from policies to attract ODA, the government needs to boost the disbursement of projects.Ministries and central and local agencies need to quickly complete the investment procedure, perform inspection, settle completed construction items, leave no residuals, and quickly sign and give contracts to bidding packages.Apply information technology in the disbursement of ODA and favorable loans to cut down on time and cost.
Fifth, one of the important factors in promoting economic growth right now is international trade, exports, and imports of goods and services.The government needs to proactively extend international relationships, negotiate and participate widely in free trade agreements, and free trade areas to create optimal conditions for the development of international trade… Businesses need to utilize opportunities, develop infrastructure and special offers that ODA brings to improve production capabilities, and distribute goods through modern scientific technologies to boost long-run economic growth.

2 . 1 . 4
Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) Relationship between ODA and import-export turnover Impact on exports: Once the relationship between development aid and economic growth is confirmed, the next inquiry pertains to the extent of the additional demand for imports within the recipient economy due to the augmented financial resources from income growth.

2. 2
RESEARCH OVERVIEW ODA capital represents foreign investment in Vietnam, exerting both direct and indirect effects on economic growth.It boosts total social Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) investment, fostering an environment conducive to attracting private investment and foreign direct investment (FDI), thereby stimulating economic growth.Nonetheless, if the structure of ODA investments is flawed, characterized by inefficient allocation, it can stifle growth and potentially undermine economic development.Many empirical studies show the role of ODA in economic growth and trade of countries around the world in different periods.Research articles focus on three main viewpoints including positive impact, negative impact, and no impact of ODA capital.Regarding the school of support for ODA, studies show the positive impact of ODA on the economies of recipient countries.Research by Dang and Vu (2018); Katarina et al., (2013) on the impact of ODA on developing countries (Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean).Research results supported the view that ODA positively affected economic growth in these countries, and is an important factor promoting economic growth in developing countries.Nigel and Chris (2013); and Abouraia (2014) examined the relationship between ODA, FDI, migration, and economic growth in developing countries.The results show the positive impact of the overall factors on economic growth under guaranteed policy and institutional conditions.Research on the impact of ODA through infrastructure and road construction on Vietnam's economic growth, Dang et al. (2021) and Trinh (2014) not only states the positive impact of ODA on economic growth but also shows how ODA affects economic growth through infrastructure and transportation development.Georgios (2005) used quantitative research methods based on research data from 71 developing countries receiving ODA.Research results show the positive impact of ODA on long-term per capita income, raising foreign aid by $20 per person of the receiving country results in a permanent increase in the growth rate of real GDP per capita by approximately 0.16 percent (Georgios, 2005).A permanent increase in aid by 1 percent of the receiving economy's GDP permanently raises the per capita growth rate by 0.14 to 0.26 percent (Georgios, 2005).Adamu (2013) mentioned the relationship between ODA with exports and other macro indicators.Quantitative research results show that exports have a positive impact on ODA, thereby promoting the economic growth of East African countries.Nejadan's (2008) research explores the connection Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) between Swiss bilateral official development aid (ODA) and Swiss export performance.The findings indicate that there is no significant evidence of reverse causality from exports to aid, which would undermine the author's econometric model.The estimation of a structural econometric model generally suggests a positive and robust impact of aid on exports.However, the outcomes may vary based on the level of data aggregation, the econometric methods employed, and the specific time frame analyzed.
Uzonwanne (2015) conducted a research on the impact of international aid on capital flows in Nigeria.Using quantitative research methods based on data from 1980-2013, The findings revealed that foreign aid has a negative impact on capital generation in Nigeria, with external debt also contributing negatively(Uzonwanne, 2015).Uzonwanne (2015) revealed that the coefficient of determination (R²) at 46% indicates that the influence of foreign aid and external debt on changes in capital generation is not significant.Consequently, the paper advises Nigeria to significantly avoid accepting aid from developed nations, as it undermines economic stability and subjects the country to external control, manipulation, and the imposition of detrimental economic policies, which are unfavorable for internal revenue generation and economic sustainability(Uzonwanne, 2015).Alvi and Senbeta (2012) investigated the effects of aid on growth, focusing on capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP).TFP measures growth impact after excluding factor accumulation contributions.Given TFP's role in explaining income and growth disparities across countries, its influence is crucial in understanding aid's impact on growth.Their findings revealed conflicting effects: while aid enhances investment, it negatively impacts TFP, suggesting efficiency losses may negate the overall benefits of aid on growth.Additionally, aid was found to diminish the effectiveness of financial institutions in fostering productivity growth, highlighting potential issues in aid distribution.
Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) George et al. (2008) argued that foreign aid can distort incentives by promoting rent-seeking behaviors over productive activities, ultimately hindering growth.Sabra and Sartawi (2015) identified that aid crowds out domestic savings and negatively affects economic growth, indicating the presence of the Dutch disease.They recommended that governments enhance policies to boost domestic savings, channel aid into investment and productive sectors, improve the policy environment, and attract more foreign direct investment (FDI).Nguyen and Nguyen (2020)'s research, which employed published data, statistics, analysis, correlation, comparison, and econometric methods, demonstrated that between 1993 and 2020, ODA investment in Vietnam had a negative and minimal impact on economic growth.This comprehensive analysis underscores the complex and often detrimental effects of foreign aid on economic development.In addition to views that ODA has either a positive or negative impact on the economy, several empirical studies offer varied perspectives on its effects over different periods.Ekanayake and Chatrna (2010) explored the effect of foreign assistance on the economic development of developing nations, concluding that the effects are mixed, reflecting previous studies' general findings.SB Moreira (2005) posited that ODA's impact is less significant in the short term than in the long term, emphasizing that the lag in aid growth should not be overlooked.Yiew and Lau (2018) explored the influence of foreign aid on GDP across 95 developing nations, discovering a U-shaped correlation between aid and economic growth.Their panel data analysis indicated that, initially, foreign aid hinders growth, but its long-term effects are beneficial.The study also revealed that foreign direct investment (FDI) and population size (POP) are more critical for GDP growth than official development assistance (ODA) (Yiew and Lau, 2018).This underscores the necessity of enhancing legal frameworks to prevent excessive reliance on ODA, which could lead to negative growth outcomes.Proper management of foreign aid is essential for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Vietnam's imports
and exports during the period 1995-2022, the research team collected data on disbursed ODA capital (ODA), total import and export turnover (XNK), and economic growth, represented by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Vietnam.The dataset spans from 1995 to 2022, comprising 28 observations.The data were sourced from the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance, International Financial Statistics, World Bank, and other annual reports.

3. 2 2 ) 1 . 2 . 4 .Figure 2 .
Figure 2. ODA, import and export turnover, and the economic growth of Vietnam during the period 1995-2022 Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) 4.1.33rd period: 2020-2022 During the 2020-2022 period, both the global economy and Vietnam's economy were negatively affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.Continuing its reduction momentum, ODA continued to shrink significantly from 424 million USD to 293 million USD (a 74.36% reduction compared to 2019 and a 30.89%decrease compared to 2020).This proved that Vietnam had started to lessen its dependency on official development assistance from overseas.However, 2022 marked the recovery of the global economy.Economic activities restarted, and ODA to Vietnam increased slightly to 387,37 million USD in 2022.For economic growth, although the world suffered negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam was one of the few countries in the world that had good epidemic control during the early stages, so economic growth remained positive.In 2022, when the economy entered the recovery stage after the pandemic, real GDP increased by 8.02% compared to the previous year.The export and import growth rate was positive, increasing from 545,331 million USD in 2020 to 730,652 million USD in 2022.The growth rate averaged 12.4%/ year.As such, it can be seen that during the period 2020-2022, ODA, total trade turnover, and economic growth did not show a positive or negative relationship, but differed at each point in time.4.2 THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG ODA, TOTAL IMPORT-EXPORT TURNOVER, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF VIETNAM DURING THE PERIOD 1995-2022: FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

2 3 )
have shown the impact of ODA, import and export turnover, and the economic growth of Vietnam during the period 1995-2022 with data series for each year with the following regression model: LGDPR= -0.035403*LODA^2+0.476178*LODA+0.416906*LXNK(-1)+5.627375(From the result of the regression model, it can be determined that: + The economic growth of Vietnam is affected by the ODA imbursed according to each period.At first, GDPR increased when ODA increased because the beginning of the economic development process of Vietnam required financial capital (between LODA and LGDPR existed a positive relationship, with the effect coefficient of 0.476178).However, the model showed that the continuation of increasing ODA would not be beneficial to the Vietnamese economy (the relationship between LODA^2 and LGDPR was negative, with the effect coefficient of -0.035403), the latter stages of economic development in Vietnam required the proactivity of domestic financial capital and mobilization of foreign direct investment (FDI) in place of ODA.
Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) Anh, N., T., V., Tung, H., T., Nam, P., H., Cuong, D., V., Dung, L., T. (2024) The Relationship Between Oda, Import-Export Turnover, and Vietnam's Economic Growth During the Period 1995 -2022 (SDG) research team proposes the following recommendations to selectively attract ODA and policies to effectively utilize it:First, the government needs to selectively attract ODA and improve its management and utilization efficiency through the completion of policy institutions.In recent years, the proportion of favorably loaned ODA is high, but the proportion of ODA without interest is low.This is quality ODA used for scientific research purposes, training, developing communities, and improvement in the quality of labor in the country.Therefore, the government should promote more ODA projects and favorable loans in the next period and especially focus on large-scale projects to develop the economy and society, projects aimed at connecting infrastructure of an interregional nature, with widespread impact, and projects aimed at responding to and preventing climate change, diseases ... Second, the government needs to effectively use the ODA of foreign donors with specific goals, prevent scattering, use it suitably to develop society and the economy, follow the investment plan, and guarantee the total investment and mid-term public loans, suitable with the ability of local agencies to borrow again.

2.1.1 Definition of ODA
intergovernmental or transnational organizations, and financial institutions International governments such as IMF, WB, ADB... (multilateral) provide funding to poor countries and developing countries, to help these countries promote economic development, reduce poverty and improve the ecological environment nature.(Nguyen Thanh Cai and Nguyen Minh Hai, 2022)

Table 1 .
Descriptive statistics of variables